Preamble
What is the relevance of natural hazards and disasters for those who are at the beginning of their studies at a university? What, besides meeting the requirements to have science class, is the motivation to take this class?
The thoughts of Robert C. Koehler are of interest here. He writes “The science gets ever more dire. The politics runs the other way.”. A brief but very clear statement about the conflict between scientific evidence telling a story of increasing threats for our global civilization, and a societal dialog dominated by interests that are in conflict with this evidence. The example of natural hazards and the disasters these hazards can trigger is well suited to underline the importance of scientific evidence for the societal dialog and the long-term sustainability of a society in dignity.
He points out that “We've claimed hold of the planet, but cluelessly, like the sorcerer's apprentice. Welcomed to the Anthropocene: the age of humanity intertwined with nature.” We have not just taken hold of the planet, we have evolved into the operators of the planetary life-support system. Unfortunately, our understanding of the physiology of planetary system is still very limited and our being intertwined with this system has led more to degradation of the non-human environment than anything else. Understanding the way we handle the risks associate with natural hazards, including those that have been modified by us or created by us, is of fundamental value for every citizen who wants to participate in the societal deliberations about how to settle, operate, and live on Earth.
Koehler quotes astrophysicist Adam Frank, who said “Climate change is not a problem we have to make go away, in a sense that you don't make adolescence go away. It is a dangerous transition that you have to navigate ... The question is, are we smart enough to deal with the effects of our own power?” Modern climate change is a natural hazard of global scale that could easily trigger global catastrophes or even extinction class events. It is important to accept it as an aspect of us wielding our newly gained power to change the planet. But is is a dangerous transition and without urgently preparing for what might come, our civilization might be in deep peril. Looking at all natural hazards and the associated risks provides the skills to contribute to the discussion of how our modern society could prepare for the transition.
Koehler makes an important point in saying that “the planet itself is transitioning, to God knows what. There may be no human race on the other side of that transition, but maybe there will be. Either way, we have to reach well beyond ourselves.” The Anthropocene is not a new geological (stable) epoch, it is an anthropogenic transition of the planet to a new homeostasis, and this new stable state of the Earth's life-support system may turn out ot be very different from the state during the Holocene. It may, in fact be far of from the conditions humans need to thrive and maintain a modern society. Whatever it turns out to be, understanding natural hazards can inform decision, policies, and societal actions to persist through the transition and come out on the other side in dignity.
Those who are in their twenties or thirties today are faced with a very high probability that their future will be very different from the past of those who are much older, and that is not just because of the rapid technological development changing our lives almost every day. They will live on a planet that is very different from the one humanity has benefited of during the last 12,000 years. Understanding hazards, vulnerability, disasters and risk governance is a very good preparation for the transition into this unknown future.
Observation Needs
The understanding of hazards originating in the planetary system and the disasters caused by these hazards hinges on observations and data. Examples of of observing systems illustrate the important of these system for society and research.
Observing Hazards
Disaster risk governance can be considered as having four phases from preparedness, early warning, response to recovery. Each of these phases need to be informed by data releated to hazards and vulnerabilities. Over the last few decades, huge investments have been made to build and operate the observing systems that provide relevant data for all four phases. Earth observations are crucial for all four phases. Here, Earth observation is understood in a comprehensive way and comprises all observations of the human and non-human environment independent of how an observation was made and collected. Thus, it includes, among others, observations made with satellite-based sessors, air or ship-borne sensors, and fixed or moving sensors on the Earth surface. These sensors can make measurements of ambient conditions or use remote sensing methods to measure characteristics of objects in a distance ranging from nearby to very far away. The sensors can be in the hands of human beings, or human beings can be the sensors themselves. In most cases, the sensors measure a variable characterizing the state of the human or non-human environment, or can be used to derive such variables. Of particular importance are coordinate systems realized through reference frames that allow highly accurate measurements.
Observing Small Changes
Very often, small changes are indicative of developing hazards and measuring these changes with high accuracy is a prerequisite for understanding hazards, detecting precoursors, assessing impacts, and informing the recovery after an event. For many variables of the earth system, the last few decades have seen a rapid improvement in the accuracy of observation techniques that allow us today to detect very small changes and utilize them in risk assessment and for early warning purposes.
Class Reading List
Solomon et al., 2002.
NRC, 2004..
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